Copper fluctuates upward, aluminum dragged down by alumina [Institution's Comment]

[Futures / futures market] During the night session, SHFE copper opened lower and fluctuated rangebound. This morning, the market continued to oscillate but returned to positive territory at the end of the session. The most-traded July contract closed at 78,910, up 0.13%, with a significant decrease in trading volume and a reduction of over 3,000 lots in total open interest. The trading rhythm of SHFE aluminum was largely synchronized with that of SHFE copper. The most-traded July contract closed at 20,025, down 0.20%, with both total trading volume and total open interest increasing slightly. The most-traded September contract of alumina closed at 2,892, down 1.47%.

[Analysis] Against the backdrop of easing tariff wars, non-ferrous metals are more likely to rise than fall amid inventory reductions. Pay attention to the extent of position expansion for SHFE copper above 79,000, with support at 78,000-78,500. Aluminum, dragged down by alumina, is experiencing short-term oscillations. Amid continuous inventory reductions, aluminum prices are supported at 19,700-20,000, but face strong resistance above 20,200.

[Valuation] Copper is moderately to highly valued, while aluminum is moderately valued.

[Risks] External risks

(Source: China Fortune Futures)